Orange Bowl Preview: Penn State plays Notre DameFor Berth in FBS Championship Game
By John ChuhranCaMMVets Media
Army may have ended its 2024 football season, but the expanded 12-team Football Bowl Series (FBS) playoffs continue this week with two of the last three games of an exciting year.
On Thursday night, we will learn the name of one of the teams that will play for the National Championship. No. 6 seed Penn State (13-2) will take on No. 7 seed Notre Dame (13-1) in the Orange Bowl in Miami (7:30 PM kickoff, ESPN TV). It is expected to be a close contest.
This is a rivalry that has gone on for more than a century. Beginning Nov. 7, 1913 when Notre Dame squeezed out a 14-7 win, the two teams have played 19 times and have a completely even record – 9-9-1. But the two teams haven’t met since 2007, so all-time records mean little.
What matters most is this season’s performance and both teams have played exceptionally well. Notre Dame’s success is well known to Army Fans, who watched the Fighting Irish shatter previously unbeaten Army’s playoff hopes with a totally dominant 49-14 win over the Black Knights in a prime-time game at Yankee Stadium broadcast on NBC-TV on Nov. 23. For the game, Notre Dame gained 462 total yards (273 rushing, 189 passing) to Army’s 233 (207, 26). The Irish also led in fewer penalties (2 to Army’s 5), turnovers (0 to Army’s 1 fumble), and time of possession (39:49 to Army’s 20:11).
How did it happen? In this age of the Player Portal and Name, Image, Likeness (NIL) payments, Notre Dame – as well as every team in the Power Four Conferences – has the financial capabilities to dangle six- and seven-figure financial offers in front of any player that program leadership desires. Notre Dame built an impressive team with powerful, lightning-quick linemen on both sides of the ball. They cleared paths and bought time by protecting ball carriers on offense while shutting gaps and making tackles on defense. Notre Dame amassed a collection of outstanding individual athletes and it has been on display all year.
Defense has been the strength of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is first in opponent’s passing completion percentage (50.61), second in turnovers margin (2.2), first in defensive touchdowns (6), second in scoring defense (13.6), third in fumbles recovered (13), fourth in interceptions (18), fourth in passing defense (167.4 avg. yards allowed), fifth in red zone defense (0.688), fourth in third down defense (0.297), and seventh in fourth down defense (0.333). The Fighting Irish are second in the country in turnover margin (plus 1.2) and fifth in takeaways per game (2.2). In the win against second seed Georgia six days ago, Notre Dame held the Bulldogs to just 62 rushing yards with 9 tackles for loss.
Leading the Fighting Irish defense is Jack Kiser (75 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 quarterback sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 quarterback hurry, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries), Drayk Bowen (62 tackles, 4 tfl, 1 sack, 2 brup, 2 qbh, 2 ff), Jaiden Ausberry (53 tackles, 6.5 tfl, 0.5 sack, 1 brup, 2 qbh, 2 fr), and Jaylen Sneed (44 tackles, 6 tfl, 2.5 sacks, 1 qbh, 2 ff, 1 fr). The secondary is anchored by Xavier Watts (66 tackles, 4 tfl, 6 interceptions, 9 pbu, 4 qbh, 1 ff, 1 fr), Adon Shuler (52 tackles, 2 tfl, 3 int, 5 brup, 2 qbh, 1 ff, 1 fr, 1 blocked kick) and Leonard Moore (42 tackles, 2 tfl, 2 int, 10 brup, 1 qbh, 2 ff). As a team, Notre Dame has grabbed 18 interceptions, forced 16 fumbles (recovering 13) and blocked 6 kicks.
On offense, Notre Dame relies on quarterback Riley Leonard, a strong passer (232 completions from 349 attempts for 2,383 yards and 18 TD with 6 interceptions) and a quick runner (149 carries for 831 yards for 15 TD). A calm leader, he is similar to Army’s Bryson Daily but with a stronger arm and quicker speed. Primary rusher Jeremiyah Love (148 carries for 1,076 yards and 16 TD with 25 catches for 226 yards and 2 TD) saw limited action in the most recent game due to a lingering knee injury, but he returned to practice this week and appears to be ready to play on Thursday. Alternate threat Jadarian Price (110 carries for 720 yards and 7 TD) has seen more action down the final stretch as Love’s replacement. Top passing targets are Beaux Collins (30 catches for 390 yards and 2TD, Jaden Greathouse (24 for 327 and a TD), and Jayden Harrison (15 for 191 yards and a TD).
So far, the Fighting Irish have scored strong FBS playoff victories over Indiana and second-seeded Georgia.
As good as Notre Dame has been, Penn State is ranked one slot higher in the FBS seeding, but is considered the underdog by Las Vegas oddsmakers (who are influenced as much by the nationwide betting support for the team from South Bend, Indiana as by the actual team performance in the games). The Nittany Lions earned their berth in the Orange Bowl with playoff wins over SMU and Boise State (the team that edged Army for the FBS playoff spot reserved for best non-Power Four team). They have great similarity with The Fighting Irish – strong defenses, strong rushing attacks. But there are significant differences.
By John ChuhranCaMMVets Media
Army may have ended its 2024 football season, but the expanded 12-team Football Bowl Series (FBS) playoffs continue this week with two of the last three games of an exciting year.
On Thursday night, we will learn the name of one of the teams that will play for the National Championship. No. 6 seed Penn State (13-2) will take on No. 7 seed Notre Dame (13-1) in the Orange Bowl in Miami (7:30 PM kickoff, ESPN TV). It is expected to be a close contest.
This is a rivalry that has gone on for more than a century. Beginning Nov. 7, 1913 when Notre Dame squeezed out a 14-7 win, the two teams have played 19 times and have a completely even record – 9-9-1. But the two teams haven’t met since 2007, so all-time records mean little.
What matters most is this season’s performance and both teams have played exceptionally well. Notre Dame’s success is well known to Army Fans, who watched the Fighting Irish shatter previously unbeaten Army’s playoff hopes with a totally dominant 49-14 win over the Black Knights in a prime-time game at Yankee Stadium broadcast on NBC-TV on Nov. 23. For the game, Notre Dame gained 462 total yards (273 rushing, 189 passing) to Army’s 233 (207, 26). The Irish also led in fewer penalties (2 to Army’s 5), turnovers (0 to Army’s 1 fumble), and time of possession (39:49 to Army’s 20:11).
How did it happen? In this age of the Player Portal and Name, Image, Likeness (NIL) payments, Notre Dame – as well as every team in the Power Four Conferences – has the financial capabilities to dangle six- and seven-figure financial offers in front of any player that program leadership desires. Notre Dame built an impressive team with powerful, lightning-quick linemen on both sides of the ball. They cleared paths and bought time by protecting ball carriers on offense while shutting gaps and making tackles on defense. Notre Dame amassed a collection of outstanding individual athletes and it has been on display all year.
Defense has been the strength of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is first in opponent’s passing completion percentage (50.61), second in turnovers margin (2.2), first in defensive touchdowns (6), second in scoring defense (13.6), third in fumbles recovered (13), fourth in interceptions (18), fourth in passing defense (167.4 avg. yards allowed), fifth in red zone defense (0.688), fourth in third down defense (0.297), and seventh in fourth down defense (0.333). The Fighting Irish are second in the country in turnover margin (plus 1.2) and fifth in takeaways per game (2.2). In the win against second seed Georgia six days ago, Notre Dame held the Bulldogs to just 62 rushing yards with 9 tackles for loss.
Leading the Fighting Irish defense is Jack Kiser (75 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 quarterback sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 quarterback hurry, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries), Drayk Bowen (62 tackles, 4 tfl, 1 sack, 2 brup, 2 qbh, 2 ff), Jaiden Ausberry (53 tackles, 6.5 tfl, 0.5 sack, 1 brup, 2 qbh, 2 fr), and Jaylen Sneed (44 tackles, 6 tfl, 2.5 sacks, 1 qbh, 2 ff, 1 fr). The secondary is anchored by Xavier Watts (66 tackles, 4 tfl, 6 interceptions, 9 pbu, 4 qbh, 1 ff, 1 fr), Adon Shuler (52 tackles, 2 tfl, 3 int, 5 brup, 2 qbh, 1 ff, 1 fr, 1 blocked kick) and Leonard Moore (42 tackles, 2 tfl, 2 int, 10 brup, 1 qbh, 2 ff). As a team, Notre Dame has grabbed 18 interceptions, forced 16 fumbles (recovering 13) and blocked 6 kicks.
On offense, Notre Dame relies on quarterback Riley Leonard, a strong passer (232 completions from 349 attempts for 2,383 yards and 18 TD with 6 interceptions) and a quick runner (149 carries for 831 yards for 15 TD). A calm leader, he is similar to Army’s Bryson Daily but with a stronger arm and quicker speed. Primary rusher Jeremiyah Love (148 carries for 1,076 yards and 16 TD with 25 catches for 226 yards and 2 TD) saw limited action in the most recent game due to a lingering knee injury, but he returned to practice this week and appears to be ready to play on Thursday. Alternate threat Jadarian Price (110 carries for 720 yards and 7 TD) has seen more action down the final stretch as Love’s replacement. Top passing targets are Beaux Collins (30 catches for 390 yards and 2TD, Jaden Greathouse (24 for 327 and a TD), and Jayden Harrison (15 for 191 yards and a TD).
So far, the Fighting Irish have scored strong FBS playoff victories over Indiana and second-seeded Georgia.
As good as Notre Dame has been, Penn State is ranked one slot higher in the FBS seeding, but is considered the underdog by Las Vegas oddsmakers (who are influenced as much by the nationwide betting support for the team from South Bend, Indiana as by the actual team performance in the games). The Nittany Lions earned their berth in the Orange Bowl with playoff wins over SMU and Boise State (the team that edged Army for the FBS playoff spot reserved for best non-Power Four team). They have great similarity with The Fighting Irish – strong defenses, strong rushing attacks. But there are significant differences.
The Penn State defense is also stingy in allowing points (an average of just 15.8 ppg to rank fifth nationally), but allows a higher opposing pass completion percentage (59.46) and more passing yards per game (187.9 to Notre Dame’s 167.4 that ranks fourth in the nation). The Nittany Lions allow more conversions on third downs (.345 to rank 27th) and on fourth downs (.556 to rank 79th), but are fractionally more effective in red zone defense(.684 to rank fourth). On rushing plays, Penn State has the statistical advantage in terms of yards allowed per rush (3.1 to rank seventh compared to ND’s 3.6 to rank 21st) and yards allowed per game (101.3 to rank seventh compared to Notre Dame’s 127.9 to rank 32nd). But when passing and running are combined, both defenses are effectively identical (Penn State ranks fifth in allowing 289.2 yards per game while the Fighting Irish are sixth at 295.4). Leading the Nittany Lions defenders are Jaylen Reed (92 tackles, 6 tfl, 2.5 sacks, 3 int, 3 brup, 1 qbh, 1 ff, 1 fr), Kobe King (88 tackles, 8.5 tfl, 3 sacks, 1 brup, 1 qbh, 1 ff), Zakee Wheatley (80 tackles, 1.5 tfl, 2 int, 4 brup, 1 ff, 2 fr), 11 Abdul Carter (63 tackles, 21.5 tfl, 11 sacks, 3 brup, 8 qbh, 2 ff), Tony Rojas (56 tackles, 6 tfl, 1 sack, 3 int, 4 brup, 5 qbh). Offensively, Penn State QB Drew Allar relies on his passing (250 completions from 371 attempts for 3,192 yards and 24 TD) more than his running (90 rushes for 285 yards and 6 TD). The ground game features a pair of 1,000-yard running backs – Kaytron Allen (201 rushes for 1,061 yards and 8 TD) and Nicholas Singleton (157 for 1,015 yards and 9 TD). Favorite passing targets are Tyler Warren (98 catches for 1,158 and 8 TD), Harrison Wallace III (46 for 723 and 4 TD), Singleton (39 for 342 and 5 TD) and Omari Evans (21 for 415 and 5 TD). With such evenly matched teams, the difference in the outcome may come down to injuries. Penn State’s Carter is battling an arm injury, but he has hinted on social media that he will be playing on Thursday night and the team has announced his availability will be a game-time decision. Notre Dame is also expected to make a game-time decision on Love. When both are playing at their best, either can be a difference maker.
Assuming they both play, the game could come down to whether or not Penn State’s Warren, who finished seventh in the Heisman Trophy balloting, can get open and whether Allan can find him. Remembering the old football saying that “three things can happen when you throw the ball and two of them are bad,” the guess here is that this will be a low scoring game that will focus on the running game.
So, which pair will triumph – Love and Price or Allen and Singleton? The stats say it’s too close to call. Running quarterbacks? Notre Dame’s Leonard has a slight edge over Aller, who has a game-breaking throw in his repertoire for use in an emergency. But will there be an open man to catch it? This should be a glorious struggle that goes down to the final minutes of the last quarter.
And then we can turn our attention to the second game – Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl on Friday night – to see who the winner’s opponent will be.
(-CaMMVets Media-)